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Hurricane Gustav

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In a Little Cafe...
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for Cancun
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Hurricane Gustav

Folks traveling or living along the Mexican Caribbean should monitor this storm for continuing updates: www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml…

And, WeatherUnderground Tracking Models:

wunderground.com/tropical/…a_topad

Gustav strengthening south of Haiti...should make landfall later

today...

at 5 am EDT...0900 UTC...the government of Cuba has issued a

Hurricane Watch for the Cuban provinces of Las Tunas...

Granma...Holguin...Santiago de Cuba...and Guantanamo. Also the

government of Jamaica has changed the tropical storm watch to a

Hurricane Watch for Jamaica. A Hurricane Watch means that

hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally

within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Barahona in the Dominican

Republic westward to Le Mole St Nicholas Haiti. Preparations to

protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Haiti from Le Mole St

Nicholas to the northern Haiti/Dominican Republic border.

Interests in central and western Cuba and the Cayman Islands should

closely monitor the progress of Gustav.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible

inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued

by your local weather office.

In a Little Cafe...
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for Cancun
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1. Re: Hurricane Gustav

This storm is now continuing to strengthen based on NHC reports and the models are continuing to show a WNW trending with two models indicating a direction in the area of the Mexican Yucatan along the storm path. The consensus model being used by the NHC is tracking between the islands of Jamaica and Cuba, predominantly over water before Gustav moves into the Northern Caribbean and then the Gulf of Mexico over the coming weekend.

Anyone with interests in the area should continue to monitor this storm as increased strength and development is being predicted by the NHC and tracking models.

In a Little Cafe...
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2. Re: Hurricane Gustav

It should be noted that Hurricane Gustav is currently a Category 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and is expected to strengthen to a Cat 2 as early as later today.

In a Little Cafe...
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3. Re: Hurricane Gustav

From the NHC:

Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on August 26, 2008

...Gustav a little stronger...nearing the South Coast of Haiti...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Barahona in the Dominican

Republic westward to Le Mole St Nicholas Haiti. Preparations to

protect life and property should be nearing completion.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Haiti from Le Mole St

Nicholas to the northern Haiti/Dominican Republic border.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Las Tunas...Granma...Holguin...Santiago de Cuba...and Guantanamo. A

Hurricane Watch is also in effect for Jamaica. A Hurricane Watch

means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch

area...generally within 36 hours.

Interests in central and western Cuba and the Cayman Islands should

closely monitor the progress of Gustav.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible

inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued

by your local weather office.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph...150

km/hr...with higher gusts. Gustav is a category one hurricane on

the Saffir-Simpson scale. The hurricane could become a category

two hurricane before landfall in Haiti later today.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at

1100 am EDT.

$$

Forecaster Brown/Pasch

Wisconsin
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4. Re: Hurricane Gustav

HM. That's all I want to say right now.

California
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5. Re: Hurricane Gustav

We're so nervous about hurricane as of we're leaving this Thursday...what are the percentage of the hurricane hitting Cancun??

Thanks

Wisconsin
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6. Re: Hurricane Gustav

Lala, I don't know anything about percentages, but on noaa, it is showing it as a "potentional" tracking, so that is keeping me optimistic. Things can change, I'm checking back hourly to see the progress.

Hm.

Cancun, Mexico
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3,871 posts
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7. Re: Hurricane Gustav

If you really want a number, go to the links that have already been given like …accuweather.com/hurricane/storms.asp… and others. OK--so let's say one of them says 10% and another 20%. What will you do? Cancel? Come on down? Forecasts and percentages will change hourly from now until Gustav goes away.

“Worry never robs tomorrow of its sorrow, it only robs today of its strength.”

A. J. Cronin

Tulsa, Oklahoma
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8. Re: Hurricane Gustav

A few years back we were in Cancun when a pesky little storm named Ivan was brewing in the Eastern Caribbean when we left the US.

We watched the forcasts and it was projected to turn north when it reached Haiti.....it didn't. Next projection had it turning north around Jamaica..it didn't. Next projection had it turning north around Grand Cayman......it didn't. Next report had it turing north before the western tip of Cuba...it didn't.

See the track here

…wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Ivan_2004_track.png

Meanwhile.......after it did not turn passing Grand Cayman, the hotel began preparing for a direct hit. Installing plywood on windows, removing pool furniture etc.

In the end it finally turned north at a point which it took it on a path that split the Yucatan Penn and the western tip of Cuba. The eye was estimated to be 80 miles from Cancun.

There was torrential rain, strong winds, and high seas with small amount of storm surg, but it was not a direct hit.

Many people tried to leave after it did not turn at Grand Cayman and beared down on the Yucatan, but couldn't get flights out.

The airport shutdown 8-10 hrs before it passed by so many people were there to ride it out. Just that 24hr period of rain and wind, nothing to bad.

We left the day after (that was our scheduled day to leave) and flew back to DFW and on the flight back we flew just west of the storm and had a great view of the entire system and could see the eye. An impressive sight. The pilot did a 360 turn so everyone could see it.

The point here is........they don't really know where these things are going. Gustav is another example...it was supposed to turn north around Haiti but still it marches NW towards the Yucatan.

Just have back up plans to leave if it grows into a cat 3 or above. Wilma proved that Cancun is not the place to be in a major hurricane.

Mike in Tulsa

California
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9. Re: Hurricane Gustav

Thanks you guys!

I guess the only thing I can do right now its to monitor.

Please give me an update if anything changes.

Thanks so much!

Phoenix, Arizona
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10. Re: Hurricane Gustav

Lala.. I am leaving Thursday too and so worried. I don't care about rain but I just don't want this storm to become huge and end up destroying cancun while there and get stuck there. I guess I can only wait.