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That disturbance is now officially TD 1. Panic not needed.

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Colo Spgs
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That disturbance is now officially TD 1. Panic not needed.

See info at nhc.noaa.gov or your favorite weather website.

The NHC and wunderground sites do not have the path maps up yet...but based upon what I saw earlier today, I would still go on Saturday even if it meant a bit of rain and wind. Sunday and later even better.

Edited: 25 June 2010, 23:06
Cozumel, Mexico
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1. Re: That disturbance is now officially TD 1. Panic not needed.

The paths are up and its heading south by Mahahual and the Biosphere area.

In a Little Cafe...
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2. Re: That disturbance is now officially TD 1. Panic not needed.

Currently appears that TD1 is going to play havoc with marine conditions and become a rainmaker with some wind gusts for the region over the next 2-3 days.

Posted From the NHC as of 6:00 PM EDT

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the

East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal northward to

Cancun.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal northward to

Cancun

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor

products issued by your National meteorological service.

BSQ
Charlotte, North...
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3. Re: That disturbance is now officially TD 1. Panic not needed.

well hopefully folks wills ee this and we won't end up with 50 tropical storm posts. ; ) I've stuck this to the top of the top questions menu.

I'm reading it as south of Cancun as well. Though I would expect rain, wind and rough surf . Pretty normal for this time of year.

In a Little Cafe...
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4. Re: That disturbance is now officially TD 1. Panic not needed.

Amen to that BSQ, and good idea, let's hope the path holds south of Cancun, and all folks will need is a few cold ones and some light foul weather gear. ;-)

Vancouver Island...
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5. Re: That disturbance is now officially TD 1. Panic not needed.

Most computer models show ALEX to be nearer the Chetumal area

Cancun, Mexico
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6. Re: That disturbance is now officially TD 1. Panic not needed.

wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201001_…

Cancun, Mexico
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7. Re: That disturbance is now officially TD 1. Panic not needed.

wunderground.com/tropical/…a_topad

From the 5-Day look it seems as though most all of the force of anything will be south of Cancun.

In a Little Cafe...
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8. Re: That disturbance is now officially TD 1. Panic not needed.

Now Tropical Storm Alex Update*(below) from the NHC, currently the storm is moving towards the southern Yucatan Peninsula and the country of Belize and areas south.

The path as projected appears to indicate minimal disruptions to the region of Quintana Roo regarding Cancun, Playa, and Coz etc... Expect some rain, possibly heavy, and rough marine conditions as a result of the storm based on the current tracking (subject to change) from the storms outer bands.

Tracking: http://bit.ly/bm5AKT

Satellite: (recommended view)

http://bit.ly/c08d77

Mariners:

http://bit.ly/9m3Ry0

*Below from the NHC:

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 10:00 am CDT on June 26, 2010

...Large Tropical Storm Alex heading toward Belize and the Yucatan

Peninsula...

summary of 1000 am CDT...1500 UTC...information

-----------------------------------------------

location...17.3n 86.1w

about 140 mi...225 km E of Belize City

about 165 mi...270 km ESE of Chetumal Mexico

maximum sustained winds...45 mph...75 km/hr

present movement...WNW or 290 degrees at 9 mph...15 km/hr

minimum central pressure...1003 mb...29.62 inches

watches and warnings

--------------------

changes with this advisory...

none.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* the coast of Belize and the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of

Mexico from Chetumal to Cancun

* the islands of roatan...guanaja...and utila in Honduras

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...

* the coast of Honduras from Limon westward to the border of

Honduras and Guatemala

a Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area ...please monitor

products issued by your National meteorological service.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook

------------------------------

at 1000 am CDT...1500 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Alex was

estimated near latitude 17.3 north...longitude 86.1 west. Alex is

moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr and this

motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. On the

forecast track...the center of Alex will approach the coast of

Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and will move across the

peninsula on Sunday and into the southern Gulf of Mexico Sunday

night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph...75

km/hr...with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible

before Alex moves inland tonight.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km

primarily to the north and east of the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb...29.62 inches.

Hazards affecting land

----------------------

rainfall...Alex is expected to produce total rain accumulations of

4 to 8 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula...eastern Guatemala...much

of Honduras and Belize through Sunday evening. Isolated maximum

amounts of 15 inches are possible over mountainous areas. These

rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Wind...tropical storm force winds are probably occurring in the Bay

Islands of Honduras...and these winds should reach the coast of

Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula within the warning area later

today.

Next advisory

-------------

next intermediate advisory...100 PM CDT.

Next complete advisory...400 PM CDT.

$$

Forecaster Avila

Edited: 26 June 2010, 16:33
In a Little Cafe...
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9. Re: That disturbance is now officially TD 1. Panic not needed.

Additionally, from the Mexican side of things; reports indicate that the areas of Cancun, Playa Del Carmen, Tulum and the Isla official warnings indicate a level of "Green", or low threat of danger,for the above.

For southern Quintana Roo, in the surrounding region of Chetumal, well south of Cancun, the official warning code is "Yellow", or moderate threat of danger as of this date/time.

Charlotte, North...
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10. Re: That disturbance is now officially TD 1. Panic not needed.

bump