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Hurricane Rina

In a Little Cafe...
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Hurricane Rina

TS Rina has rapidly developed into Hurricane Rina as per the NHC and the projections, path and strengthening at this time are not looking favorable for the Yucatan region, please see below for path/projections from Weatherunderground:

wunderground.com/tropical/…at201118.html

The NHC report is below:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Stormpulse Interactive for those interested below:

http://www.stormpulse.com/atlantic

Currently, the State of Quintana Roo has gone to a "Green Alert" with once again an anticipated raise in risk assessment anticipated as the Alert was issued this AM.

The long and short of it currently is that the NHC is forecasting a major Cat 3 Hurricane to approach the southern Yucatan Peninsula late Thursday, making a Northeast turn towards the Gulf as Cat 2 Friday and beyond. Monitoring of the storm is highly recommended and at this point in time there's no guaranteed locational accuracy as to local area but as per the NHC, there's a major storm developing.

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1. Re: Hurricane Rina

Courtesy of Dr. Jeff Masters at WeatherUnderground:

Forecast for Hurricane Rina:

The hurricane hunters found an elliptical eyewall that had a gap in it during their 3:30 pm eye penetration. The aircraft measured a temperature difference of 6°C between the eye and the region outside the eye, which is difficult to get unless an eyewall is on its way to completion. Rina will need to complete its eyewall if it is to intensify into a major hurricane. Given the fact wind shear is not expected to increase until Wednesday, Rina has a 2-day period to close off an eyewall and intensify, and it will probably reach Category 3 or Category 4 strength by Wednesday. On Wednesday, Rina will encounter a dry airmass with high wind shear that lies over the extreme northwestern Caribbean. These conditions should weaken the hurricane, but Rina could still be a major hurricane if it makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday or Thursday.

A trough of low pressure is predicted to pass to the north of Rina late this week, and now that the hurricane is expected to be a Category 2 or stronger storm, the chances for Rina to make it farther north and affect the Florida Keys and Southwest Florida have increased. The latest 8 am EDT runs of the GFDL and HWRF models both predict that Rina will pass through the Yucatan Channel on Thursday and make landfall on Friday in the Florida Keys or extreme Southwest Florida, south of Naples. The NOGAPS and GFS models predict a weaker storm, and keep Rina trapped in the Caribbean. I think it is more likely that Rina will pass through the Keys. If Rina does make it to the Keys, it would likely be as a tropical storm, since wind shear, dry air, and possible land interaction with Western Cuba and Mexico would potentially knock down the storm's strength. Heavy rains from Rina should begin affecting Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, northern Belize, and extreme Western Cuba on Wednesday. Rina's intensification into a hurricane over the Western Caribbean during the last half of October bring to mind Hurricane Wilma, which also performed such a feat in 2005. Wilma went on to become a Category 5 monster, the strongest Atlantic hurricane of all-time. I don't think Rina will be another Wilma, even though the ocean temperatures and total heat content are similar to what Wilma experienced. Wilma had nearly ideal upper-level atmospheric conditions with an anticyclone aloft and light wind shear, under 5 knots. Rina is experiencing 15 - 20 knots of wind shear and is also a smaller storm, and is thus more vulnerable to the effects of wind shear and dry air.

For more, please follow the link below:

wunderground.com/blog/…

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2. Re: Hurricane Rina

Katrina was a category 3 hurricane am I correct? Could that type of damage be expected?

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3. Re: Hurricane Rina

RINA" IT'S CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE

* Green Alert is maintained.

THE CIVIL PROTECTION (Of Quintana Roo, Mexico) DEPARTMENT REPORTS:

ALERT BULLETIN October 24, 2011

PHENOMENON:

NAME OF THE PHENOMENON: Caribbean Sea: Hurricane Rina BULLETIN No: 4 TIME: 13:15 GREEN ALERT - LOW RISK: -PREVENTION APPROACH

Disruption of 72-48 hours

Reports to be issued as appropriate weather for tropical storm warnings every 12 hours (or as required). This information will be provided by the State Department of Civil Protection.

REAL SITUATION

GREEN ALERT (dangerously low-PREVENTION APPROACH)

NOTICE No. 4 of the Hurricane "Rina" Caribbean Sea.

October 24, 2011. 13:15.

During the afternoon Tropical Storm "Rina" Caribbean Sea has intensified to a hurricane localized at coordinates 13 hours, 17.1 degrees north latitude and 83.0 degrees west longitude, moving northwest presents (320 degrees) at a rate of 8 km / h, about 235 kms., north of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua and 582 kms., east / southeast of Chetumal, Quintana Roo, with maximum winds near the center of 120 km / h and gusts of 148 km / h. Hurricane winds extend 30 miles, and tropical storms to 185 km., The center to the periphery of the system.

PREDICTIONS

FORECAST POSITION FOR 6 HOURS OF THE DAY 25-AUG-11.

Hurricane is expected to "Rina" Caribbean Sea, is situated at 6 pm on the day morning at coordinates 17.6 degrees north latitude and 84.0 degrees west longitude, about 466 kms., East / southeast of Chetumal, Quintana Roo, maintaining their current category of hurricane.

RECOMMENDATIONS

NOTE: Due to its history and the possible influence on the weather (rain and wind) in the Yucatan Peninsula, on the gradual approach is recommended in the general population continue to watch for notices issued through the Government portals of the State and the different means of communication on this tropical system. Surveillance should be maintained in its evolution.

Prepared by: Met. Jaime E. Villasana Mirror

Edited: 24 October 2011, 21:26
In a Little Cafe...
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4. Re: Hurricane Rina

Kelly~ Katrina peaked as a Cat 5 but weakened before landfall to a Cat 3 when striking the Louisiana/ Mississippi area among others. Louisiana officially considered it's second landfall after it had crossed over Florida.

As to damage projections, unknown, we're getting ahead of ourselves here, we need to see tighter model projections and paths, along with development.

The main thing here is that folks need to monitor this storm along with the NHC/NOAA forecast as the storm develops.

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5. Re: Hurricane Rina

Good luck and stay safe to those who live in the area and the those traveling to the area. Let's hope the path changes a little and Cancun is spared.

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6. Re: Hurricane Rina

Folks

these storms are nothing to panic about. They are more of a media thing and the hype here is only going to panic those who do not know better. Unless this storm is a direct hit to Cancun (odds are it will not be) then it will be nothing but 1-2 days of rain with some winds.

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7. Re: Hurricane Rina

Howdy folks, and thanks to Dangers for helping get out such valuable information already on this...

While it's important not to panic about this storm in this early stage, it is also prudent to disregard what BVG_Steve has written about not worrying about this storm... This does appear to be a storm that will need to be taken seriously.

There's a tremendous amount of agreement within our computer models at this time that suggest a direct impact of some sort to the Northern Yucatan Peninsula, including Cancun, Playa del Carmen, Cozumel, Akumal, Tulum, Xel-Ha, etc.

Current projections suggest that the storm will make landfall somewhere between Playa del Carmen and Cozumel on Thursday afternoon or evening as a strong category 2 hurricane with winds at approx 110 MPH. The exact track of the storm will be critical in determining the precise impact. Should the storm pass just west of Cozumel, we would be looking at a considerable storm surge threat in addition to the wind and rain. In a perfect world, we'd want the storm to pass just EAST of Cozumel, which would limit the storm surge threat considerably, and scale the winds down ever so slightly...

The storm is then forecast to head North towards Cancun, scheduled to arrive there Friday morning or early afternoon. Minor weakening is possible in this time, but it's highly likely Rina will have held onto hurricane strength.

This does bring up a lot of comparisons to Wilma, especially given the time at which this storm is forecast to impact the region, and the track looking very very similar... But at this point, there's little reason for us to believe that it will be as strong as Wilma, nor do we believe it will park over the Yucatan for multiple days as it did back in 2005.

Still, this is a storm very much worthy of our attention. It's prudent to note that there still is time for things to change. Things often do change when it comes to these types of storms, and even the most subtle of changes can have dramatic impacts on the forecast... It's far too early to panic, but at this stage, it would wise to at least start preparing for a potential impact.

I'll be sure to post as regularly as possible here in the coming hours and days.

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8. Re: Hurricane Rina

Its great see you weatherdood! Always nice to have a professional here among us amateurs. Hope you will continue to update us!

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9. Re: Hurricane Rina

Mark, appreciate you dropping in and, a terrific update that we can all wrap ourselves around in layman's terms.

As always, the first one's on me!

Gracias amigo. ;-)

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10. Re: Hurricane Rina

If the storm does continue on its projected path does anyone know what kind of impact it might have on Cancun itself (beaches, resorts, etc.)? What might the conditions be like the following week?