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NOAA predicts active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season

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Colo Spgs
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for Cozumel
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NOAA predicts active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season

Source:

…noaa.gov/stories2013/20130523_hurricaneoutl…

"For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook says there is a 70 percent likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 7 to 11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).

These ranges are well above the seasonal average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes."

Monitor a site like nhc.noaa.gov or your favorite weather site to see where tropical systems are going.

Calgary
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for Akumal, Riviera Maya, Cancun
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1. Re: NOAA predicts active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season

Don't they predict an "active" season just about every year?

Fort Worth, Texas
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2. Re: NOAA predicts active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season

They have the last 2 or 3 in a row.

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3. Re: NOAA predicts active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season

Doesn't hurt to be prepared/informed - for what it's worth.

Tornado season has already proved brutal.

St. Lucia
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for St. Lucia
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4. Re: NOAA predicts active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season

Absolutely be prepared, regardless of what NOAA predicts, it's hurricane season, and they can come up with little warning.

And yes, the last several years have had predicted very active seasons, and they were, it's just that most storms didn't hit land, they stayed out to sea.

Definitely be prepared, travel insurance is always a good idea during this time, and keep an eye on weather reports.

Otherwise - have fun, nothing you can do to change it!

Sugar Land, Texas
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5. Re: NOAA predicts active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season

This is the first year I have never bought travel insurance so I probably hexed myself. Weather is weather. Gotta deal with it.

Boston
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6. Re: NOAA predicts active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season

Yes they say the same thing every year. Half the time they're right and they go on CNN/MSNBC to brag as expert. Half the time they're wrong they disappear until next year. Where can I get this job where I can be wrong half of the time?

Cozumel, Mexico
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for Cozumel, Merida
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7. Re: NOAA predicts active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season

Agree, toothxt. Usually not much new in the forecast. Nice work if you can get it.

But it does always help to be prepared.

Calgary
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for Akumal, Riviera Maya, Cancun
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8. Re: NOAA predicts active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season

"travel insurance is always a good idea during this time,"

Before buying insurance, you may want to check exactly what it covers and how it works. "Hurricane insurance" only kicks in if the area you are travelling to is under a bona fide hurricane warning - tropical storms don't count.

IME airlines are pretty good when it comes to hurricanes. First of all, airports get closed, so they won't be flying you there anyway. In that case, they will usually waive their change fees and let you either rebook for a different date or change to a different destination altogether. Many (most?) hotels have a 24 hour cancellation policy, so if a bad storm hits before your trip or appears to be imminent, you can cancel without penalty.

For these reasons and in accordance with advice given to me by a travel agent (a good one!), I've never purchased hurricane insurance despite ALL my trips to the tropics being during hurricane season.

To be clear, I'm not saying don't buy travel/hurricane insurance, I'm just suggesting that you ensure you understand the policy and the risks it actually covers (i.e. the relatively unlikely hurricane) and what it doesn't (the more likely tropical storm).

Florida
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9. Re: NOAA predicts active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season

travel insurance IMO is never a good idea, if you look at the odds of a hurricane hitting they are like 1 in 140 to 1 in 300 depending the week you are traveling, with Sept and Oct the ones with the lower odds. But a hurricane has hit Cancun only 13 times in past 140 years or once every 11.5 years.

So if you look at a month like July for example there are 4 weeks in the month let's say. Only once has a hurricane ever hit Cancun in July and it was as follows:

1887 July 25th 95mph winds coming from the SSE

so if you are going for 1 week vacation multiply 4 weeks in July times the 140 years of recorded history = once in every 560 1 week July vacations will you be impacted.

Now multiply the cost of insurance x 560 and that is what it would cost you to collect on the insurance one time. Example insurance cost 200, vacation cost $4000, multiply $300 times 560 and you get $112,000 spent to collect $4000.

This is what the insurance companies do and travel insurance is a huge profit margin for the insurance companies. travel insurance is like going to the casino. The odds are against you, it is great when you win but the vast majority of the people lose

.

Edited: 24 May 2013, 13:59
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Yorktown Heights
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10. Re: NOAA predicts active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season

Steve you took word out of my mouth. Travel Insurance is nothing but huge money maker for the insurance companies and the people who sell them, be it airlines, tour operators,etc... It is like extended warranties sold here in US on cars, electronics, appliances,etc... I can't count how many times my vacation got posponed because of snow storms in NY, the airlines and hotels worked with me and I just left few days later. There is no need to buy travel in insurance for this purpose.

Edited: 24 May 2013, 14:05