We noticed that you're using an unsupported browser. The TripAdvisor website may not display properly.We support the following browsers:
Windows: Internet Explorer, Mozilla Firefox, Google Chrome. Mac: Safari.

How reliable are forecasts (weather concern 6/9 - 6/16/14)?

Houston, Texas
Level Contributor
26 posts
7 reviews
Save Topic
How reliable are forecasts (weather concern 6/9 - 6/16/14)?

We leave for our first family vacation to Cozumel on Monday morning, June 9. We have been SO excited about this trip. We were watching the weather forecasts a couple of days ago and it looked grim in terms of rain, as in, it looked like it was going to rain the entire time we were there (we're leaving to come home on Monday, June 16).

I have forced myself to stop looking at the forecast. It was casting a dark cloud (no pun intended) over my outlook for our vacation. If it were just my husband and I traveling, I wouldn't worry about it. But staying in a condo (Residencias Reef) with whiny, bored kids (2 boys, 5 & 8) seems like it might be a bit gloomy. We are going to bring some puzzles and games to play, movies to watch, and we hope to get out and about when there are breaks in the rain.

First of all, does anyone have any experience with forecasts being somewhat wrong? I do with the weather here in south Texas, but not so much in the tropics. Our local forecasts are sometimes wrong to the extreme, usually as pertains to rain (they predict it, we don't get as much or any as they predicted). Sometimes it goes the other way.

Second, if it does rain all week as predicted, does anyone have any ideas on what there is to do with kids this age indoors? Or even outdoors if it's not raining too badly?

I've been a little over-wrought, as we are not seasoned international travelers. I know we will be okay. I'm just feeling a little sad that things may not work out the way I had imagined on our first trip to Cozumel. Working on a brighter outlook for the day as we continue packing.

Thank you for any experience you may have with this.

Palancar Reef
Reefs, Geologic Formations
Santa Rosa Wall
Geologic Formations, Reefs
Columbia Reef
Geologic Formations, Reefs
El Paso del Cedral Reef
Geologic Formations, Reefs
Middletown
Level Contributor
176 posts
2 reviews
Save Reply
1. Re: How reliable are forecasts (weather concern 6/9 - 6/16/14)?

We will be there when you are. I don't think it will be as bad as we keep hearing. Certainly not as bad as this past week. We are going to snorkel rain or shine. The water/ocean is wet. As long as it's not lightening, I'm in the ocean! Hope you have a great trip - I think you will.

Houston, Texas
Level Contributor
26 posts
7 reviews
Save Reply
2. Re: How reliable are forecasts (weather concern 6/9 - 6/16/14)?

Thank you for the reassurance. I don't know why this has me down the way it does. We don't dive (had kids before we learned, but it's in our future as they get older) and we've never snorkeled. Is snorkeling something we can learn while there?

I'm also looking for things the kids would enjoy. The pool and beach will be wonderful. Surprisingly, they both want to go shopping.

Anyway, thanks for the pep talk! If the weather doesn't change, my outlook has to. :)

Saint Louis...
Level Contributor
3,861 posts
26 reviews
Save Reply
3. Re: How reliable are forecasts (weather concern 6/9 - 6/16/14)?

Yep, you can learn it there. Here's how:

Walk to water edge, without your fins on. Sit in the water, and put on your fins. Put your mask on, your snorkel should be in place, to swing into your mouth, there is a piece on the snorkel, to hook it to your mask. Place snorkel mouthpiece in mouth. Lean forward onto your belly. Because you are breathing air the whole time, you will float. With the kids, you probably want to put a life vest on them, for reassurrance. Look around....ENJOY!!!!

Thats it. Nothing to it!

Houston, Texas
Level Contributor
26 posts
7 reviews
Save Reply
4. Re: How reliable are forecasts (weather concern 6/9 - 6/16/14)?

Thanks! I'm hoping we can get everything we need from our condo manager, or at least directed on where to get it. Sounds really cool!

Phoenix, Arizona...
Level Contributor
4 posts
36 reviews
Save Reply
5. Re: How reliable are forecasts (weather concern 6/9 - 6/16/14)?

We are here right now 6/7.i was worried just like you. So far even with forecasts of 80%chance of rain it has not been a problem.Maybe a few sprinkles and a down pour at night. As someone else mentioned. The forecast doesn't mean rain all day or even most of the day. Just that there is a good chance it will rain some time. The clouds and breeze have been nice but with all the rain the Mosquitos are out. Bring bug spray.

Houston, Texas
Level Contributor
289 posts
19 reviews
Save Reply
6. Re: How reliable are forecasts (weather concern 6/9 - 6/16/14)?

For sure bring bug spray!! lol They are bad again like last year, glad I packed some spray. It has honestly been nice, we just got here yesterday.

Kansas City...
Level Contributor
2,940 posts
62 reviews
Save Reply
7. Re: How reliable are forecasts (weather concern 6/9 - 6/16/14)?

Re: snorkeling - get the technique down in the pool, then move to the ocean. snorkeling is amazing, you will be blown away with the amount of sealife that exists in just a few feet of water.

Re: shopping - your boys will be bored with it really fast I think

re: rain - just because it says it might rain everyday - doesn't mean it will rain all day everday. it might rain for a short time and then just be p/c the rest, or even sunny. its the tropics in the summer - hard to avoid it altogether.

Edited: 08 June 2014, 00:25
Kansas City...
Level Contributor
2,940 posts
62 reviews
Save Reply
8. Re: How reliable are forecasts (weather concern 6/9 - 6/16/14)?

Also, weather.com and similar sites stink with tropics forecasts...

Try this and read the radar yourself... as long as you don't see a big sizable storm you can expect the rain to mostly be scattered.

www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx…

Houston, Texas
Level Contributor
26 posts
7 reviews
Save Reply
9. Re: How reliable are forecasts (weather concern 6/9 - 6/16/14)?

Thanks so much, SevenCostanza. I will check out that weather site for sure. And thanks for all the other tips and lots of gratitude to everyone who has helped me understand the weather situation. And the mosquitoes.

Speaking of mosquitoes, I did a ton of reading on this forum about mosquito repellent and just went on a fruitless journey to a few stores. I do have Deep Woods Off, but am hoping to buy some Autan at one of the super-grocery stores. Anyone have any luck finding it there recently? Mosquitoes LOVE me and my kids. Love.

Saint Louis...
Level Contributor
99 posts
Save Reply
10. Re: How reliable are forecasts (weather concern 6/9 - 6/16/14)?

We've been here at Residencias Reef since Sunday. The forecast hast been 60%-100% rain all week and the only wash out days have been Sunday and most of Monday. We've barely seen any rain since, although it has been fairly overcast with breaks of sun here and there. We've all managed to get a sunburn regardless. My boys have still enjoyed the snorkeling and pool here non the less. I stopped obsessing over the weather after Monday. We can't change it...only make the best of it. Enjoy :-))