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Hurricane?

CHICAGO
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179 posts
15 reviews
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Hurricane?

Hi all! I have heard that this season may be bad with hurricanes.,...while no one can predict Mother Nature...is there someplace to see what may occur this year? Have a trip to DReams RC booked for late October....

Colo Spgs
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for Cozumel
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2 reviews
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1. Re: Hurricane?

Simple answer is no. If you go to the Cozumel forum there is a Top Question that will help educate you on hurricanes. I doubt anyone can predict what October will be like. Go read what is posted and you should have a better handle on this issue.

Chambersburg, PA
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19 posts
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2. Re: Hurricane?

October is a long way off. Guatemala just got hit with the seasons first named storm and the guatemalian west cost is only about 450 miles away. We will be at the Dreams the week of July 3 and hope we don't have a problem.

Chambersburg, PA
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3. Re: Hurricane?

Just heard on the news this is supposed to be the worst season in the past 5. Estimating 23 named storms to the Gulf this year.

Vancouver, Canada
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687 posts
6 reviews
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4. Re: Hurricane?

Here's a link to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) who does the Hurricane season predictions for the Pacific and Atlantic basin:

…noaa.gov/stories2010/20100527_hurricaneoutl…

Boca Raton, Florida
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383 posts
1 review
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5. Re: Hurricane?

last year they said it was going to be the worst season ever...not saying it wont be bad but if you were a weather man and had to predict stuff i would pick the worst case scenario so that you cant say I didn't worn you

Rapid City, SD
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753 posts
21 reviews
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6. Re: Hurricane?

Meteorology - the only profession in the world where its okay to be wrong 50% of the time. : ) No telling what's to come for October. I'm just hoping the "worst season" will hold off until after June 15th.

Arden, North...
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150 posts
79 reviews
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7. Re: Hurricane?

...or extends itself until after July 17-25th when we're at El Cid! ;-)

My wife and I weathered Hurricane Ivan in Aruba during our honeymoon in Sept 2004. Kinda flooded the area and definitely impacted our honeymoon, but we still had a good time, including a VERY memorable impromptu hurricane party on the Tam's beach the night it hit!

Hurricane or no hurricane, I am GOING to have fun.

Cheers! - Keith :-)

Vancouver
Destination Expert
for Akumal, Riviera Maya, Quintana Roo, Puerto Morelos
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43,853 posts
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8. Re: Hurricane?

As you get into the H Season, forecasts become more accurate - so do some googles

For 2010

Pre-season forecasts

On December 9, 2009, Klotzbach's team issued their first extended-range forecast for the 2010 season, predicting average to above-average activity (11 to 16 named storms, 6 to 8 hurricanes and 3 to 5 major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher and ACE Index of 100–162), citing that the 2009–10 El Niño event is likely to dissipate by the start of the season.[1] On April 7, 2010, Klotzbachs's team issued an updated forecast for the 2010 season, predicting above-average activity (15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher), citing the dissipating 2009-10 El Niño, the possibility of current weak to moderate La Niña and warming Atlantic SSTs (sea surface temperatures) as potential factors.[3] North Carolina State University professor Lian Xie and a team of colleagues and students predicted that 2010 would see 15 to 18 named storms, with 8-11 potentially becoming hurricanes.[4] Xie’s team predicts that 3-6 storms will make landfall in the Gulf of Mexico, with one storm making landfall at hurricane status. However, no prediction was made for the number of major hurricanes.[4]

On May 27, NOAA released their forecast for the season, predicting an "extremely active" season (14 to 23 named storms, 8 to 14 hurricanes, and 3 to 7 major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher). NOAA based its forecast on weaker wind shear, warmer temperatures in the region and the continuance of the "high activity era" which began in 1995. Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, added the main uncertainty in the outlook was how much above normal the 2010 season will be, and whether the high end of the predicted range is reached "depends partly on whether or not La Niña develops this summer. At present we are in a neutral state, but conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for La Niña to develop

For 2009 (unsure whate Beachteacher is talking about)

Pre-season forecasts

On December 10, 2008, Klotzbach's team issued its first extended-range forecast for the 2009 season, predicting above-average activity (14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 of Category 3 or higher and ACE Index of 125). On April 7, 2009, Klotzbach's team issued an updated forecast for the 2009 season, predicting near-average activity (12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 of Category 3 or higher and ACE Index of 100), citing the possible cause as the high probability of a weak El Niño forming during the season.[9] On May 21, 2009, NOAA issued their forecast for the season, predicting near or slightly above average activity, (9 to 14 named storms, 4 to 7 hurricanes, and 1 to 3 of Category 3 or higher).[10]

Midseason outlooks

On June 2, 2009, Klotzbach's team issued another updated forecast for the 2009 season, predicting slightly below average activity (11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 of Category 3 or higher and ACE Index of 85). On June 18, 2009, the UK Met Office (UKMO) issued a forecast of 6 tropical storms in the July to November period with a 70% chance that the number would be in the range 3 to 9. They also predicted an ACE Index of 60 with a 70% chance that the index would be in the range 40 to 80.[11] On August 4, 2009, Klotzbach's team updated their forecast for the 2009 season, again predicting slightly below average activity (10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes). On August 6, 2009, the NOAA also updated their forecast for the 2009 season, predicting below average activity (7–11 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, and 1–2 major hurricanes).

You can also look at which months are more active (e.g. Sept - Oct) - hey - guess why that time period is cheaper

WV
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3,550 posts
93 reviews
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9. Re: Hurricane?

I am with Keith...we will have a good time:=)...July 21-29...

Columbus, Ohio
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101 posts
22 reviews
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10. Re: Hurricane?

Have weathered one hurricane and two tropical depressions over my 40 some odd years of traveling the Caribbean (first time I was twelve years old and held up with my aunt and cousin on Lower Matacombe in the Florida Keys). Never have had any problems in Mexico with extreme weather though but I do understand that if you are on the Yucatan Peninsula and the warning is issued you will be required to evacuate the coastline. With that being said, the best we can offer is: "the weather, it is what it is". Will be in PoMo from June 25 – July 9, 2010; condo right on the beach equipped with WiFi so I will be able give a birds-eye report each morning (just not too early) from my palapa.