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Thailand economy predictions

Perth
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Thailand economy predictions

Hi,

Anyone have any thoughts on what all this is going to do to the Thai economy? Strangely enough the THB has increased in value over the past few days, which doesn't help encourage tourists to come back.

Sadly the Australian dollar resembles the pesso at the moment so I know my trip to BKK is going to cost me more than my previous trips but can we expect for hotels to have more specials or the THB to weaken at all?

Thanks,

Dave

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Hell, Norway
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1. Re: Thailand economy predictions

There are predictions of dire results of all this. 50% drop in tourism next year, 1 million (at least) more unemployed, reduction and cancellation of foreign investments.

Florida - Alaska...
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for Chiang Mai, Chiang Mai Province
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2. Re: Thailand economy predictions

It certainly has caused a drop in our bookings for trips in Thailand. And probably a lot depends on how it all ends, but it is sure to dampen the economy.

I tend to take those current dire predictions with a grain of salt, when you consider that they have been released by the embattled government who would probably exaggerate a bit to sway public sentiment against the protesters.

On the brightside, leastways for those of us in tourism, travelers tend to have a short term memory. We survived after 9/11, SARS, bird flu, a coup d'etat, etc. It will be rice and cheap beer for a while, but the tourists will return.

Sydney
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3. Re: Thailand economy predictions

I suspect the Thai government is buying up their own Baht to keep it strong but they could only keep that up for so long. I'm not really basing this on anything concrete though. Is there anyone out there that has a strong understanding of international markets and the stock exchange?

It's sad how poorly our dollar is going at the moment but I guess it could be a lot worse. I'm just hoping against hope that all this doesn't boil over into a civil war.

San Diego...
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4. Re: Thailand economy predictions

With the on-going global financial crisis, the current political turmoil in Thailand won't help tourism.

New York City, New...
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5. Re: Thailand economy predictions

The tourism industry in Thailand will be crushed for some time to come. Crushed.

Berlin/Bangkok
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for Bangkok, Berlin, Thailand
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6. Re: Thailand economy predictions

Tourism has been estimated at only 5 to 7 percent of the Thai economy. But I think that's seriously underestimated and probably doesn't include the big chunk of entertainment and culinary services dependent on tourists, and the part of the informal retail sector aimed at tourists. Even so, it's still not as big as we travellers tend to think it is.

This crisis must be hurting the industrial sector as well, for instance in engineering or electronic components or other export products which have to be shipped just-in-time, by air freight.

Not to mention the loss of business confidence which will have far-ranging effects, just at a time when the world is plunging into recession and Thailand would have been impacted anyway.

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7. Re: Thailand economy predictions

How come the hotel rates are sky high. I have made enquiries for hotel rooms in Krabi and Phuket for March 2009 and for 4/5 star the rates are through the roof and I am thinking about going to Malaysia instead. I think over the last 4 or 5 years Thailand has had the monopoly of the Europeans taking their holidays in their country and the prices have doubled. Maybe they will realise they need to reduce the room rates. We are happy to spend our holidays in Thailand but feel we are being taken advantage of. It is a long way for us to travel and now it is not value for money like it used to be. I hope the tourism for the Thais does not suffer but please please be more realistic about your hotel charges.

somerset
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8. Re: Thailand economy predictions

The Thai,s have a funny sense of logic, when bookings are on the slide they still want the same gross income so they put prices up to compensate instead of lowering the price to encourage people back, personally i think this could have dire consequences for the the holiday trade for a long time to come. It wont affect me as i can stay at my g/f,s farm indefinitely if i wish so i dont need hotels unlike the majority of holiday makers.

Andygsxr

Berlin/Bangkok
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for Bangkok, Berlin, Thailand
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9. Re: Thailand economy predictions

This was part of an article in The Nation:

<<Pramong Suthiwong, chairman of Thailand's Board of Trade, yesterday urged the government to re-open Suvarnabhumi Airport as soon as possible because the damage from its closure is now "incalculable".

...--...

The private sector said an extended closure of Suvarnabhumi and Don Mueang airports would also severely damage the country's international reputation, while the recovery process will take more than one year.

Pornsilp Patcharinkul, a senior executive of the Board of Trade, said fresh food, orchids, electronics, jewellery and other exporters are badly hit by the airport closures with damage estimated to be around Bt3 billion per day.

Fresh fruit and vegetable exporters could not do their business because they needed to use cold storage facilities at Suvarnabhumi Airport, he said.

The private sector is not sure how long it would take to reopen the airports as a reopening will likely require certification from the international aviation body for safety reasons.

Somkiat Anuraj, vice chairman of the Board of Trade, said it may take more than one year to fix the country's international image if the forced closure of airports lasted more than a week.

"Thai exporters will lose lots of business opportunities as buyers will turn to other countries. Unfortunately, this is happening during the peak export period as lots of orders are received in November and December," he said.

Santi Vilassakdanont, chairman of Federation of Thai Industries, said the government may have to use part of the additional Bt100-billion fiscal budget to revive tourism, aviation and export sectors hit by airport closures.

...--...

At this stage, foreign arrivals could have plunged to just 7-8 million next year down from the 13-14 million arrivals, resulting in a major loss of jobs in tourism and related sectors.

Tourism and other services currently account for 40 per cent of Thailand's GDP.>>

Melbourne
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for Melbourne
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10. Re: Thailand economy predictions

It's a very sad situation.......... do these protestors REALLY understand the international and irrervisable (certainly short/medium term at least) damage that they are doing to their great country?