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Other experts say oil 'pretty unlikely' to hit Keys - Paper

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Other experts say oil 'pretty unlikely' to hit Keys - Paper

Other experts say oil 'pretty unlikely' to hit Keys

Some scientists say the Loop Current is a moving target, one that will dodge the bullet of having oil trapped in it -- thanks also in part to weak winds and a weak feeder eddy.

The core of the Loop Current was 150 miles from the oil slick Tuesday and has begun to move south, as it does seasonally, one computer model shows.

It will be 200 to 300 miles away from the slick's location on Tuesday within the next five days, according to Eric Chassignet, director of the Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies at Florida State University.

That makes the possibility of the slick reaching the Loop Current and bringing oil south along the Florida Coast to the Florida Keys, Florida Bay and Dry Tortugas "pretty unlikely," Chassignet said.

His prediction comes from a tried-and-true model that his agency, the Navy and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have been using for the past five years, he said, adding that he is "confident" of its accuracy.

The possibility of wind blowing the slick into the Loop Current was refuted Tuesday by Doug Helton, NOAA's incident operations coordinator from the oil rig accident. He said the winds have not been strong enough in one consistent direction to push the slick to one specific area.

Even if the wind did blow it into a counterclockwise-moving eddy that was 50 miles from slick on Tuesday, that feeder current isn't strong enough to push the oil into the main Loop Current, Chassignet said.

"If it (oil) is trapped in the eddy, not much will be captured by the main Loop Current," Chassignet said.

The immediate concern for environmental damage has been and remains on the offshore islands on the northern Gulf Coast and the wetlands and estuaries of the Mississippi Delta, Helton said.

tohara@keysnews.com

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1. Re: Other experts say oil 'pretty unlikely' to hit Keys - Paper

Go figure. The "experts" don't know . . . .

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2. Re: Other experts say oil 'pretty unlikely' to hit Keys - Paper

I agree BG. I thought it was pretty silly having both articles basically side by side in the paper. Sorta a CYA move.

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3. Re: Other experts say oil 'pretty unlikely' to hit Keys - Paper

True, Buffettguy. Still, it's nice to see a hypothesis that doesn't end with the complete destruction of the entire Gulf of Mexico.

Louisiana, Alabama and the Panhandle are still in trouble. If Central and South Florida can avoid the hit, it will still be a tragedy, but a thankfully smaller one.

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4. Re: Other experts say oil 'pretty unlikely' to hit Keys - Paper

Is it me or do these discussions remind you of hurricane season when the weather people get all excited about big storms that more often than not, move off in other directions? Those goof balls do more damage to tourism than your typical cat one. Same thing here.... It seems that there's a certain percentage of people who just love the 'worst case scenerio'. It's prudent to stay up to date with what's going on and make your own decisions. Avoid the chicken little approach of sensationalism.

Edited: 05 May 2010, 13:21
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5. Re: Other experts say oil 'pretty unlikely' to hit Keys - Paper

Ya hurricane predictions

Or Mad Cow disease

Or bird flu pandemic

Or swine flu pandemic

Or .........

Never let a catastrophy go to waste.

Edited to add: This in NO way suggests that the econimic impact upon the gulf coast is not real. I keep those people in my thoughts and prayers. I pray that this does not even come close to the tragedy that the talking heads are predicting.

Edited: 05 May 2010, 13:54
SDT
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6. Re: Other experts say oil 'pretty unlikely' to hit Keys - Paper

It is a sign of the times. Sensationalism sells. Not that different then Glen Beck becoming a mega millionaire based on warning us that the entire country will be communist next week, or on the other side, that global warming will flood New York City next year.

No one really knows. I think the biggest issue is if BPs current plans are able to stop the flow of oil. If the planned method does not work, it could take months to try something else to stop the flow and then it will likely be a real disaster.

Meanwhile, the price of oil is rising, and oil company profits are soaring... Go figure...

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7. Re: Other experts say oil 'pretty unlikely' to hit Keys - Paper

i always listen to teh "other" experts!!!

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8. Re: Other experts say oil 'pretty unlikely' to hit Keys - Paper

"Is it me or do these discussions remind you of hurricane season when the weather people get all excited about big storms that more often than not, move off in other directions?"

Yep! There is a particular weather man in Orlando that I can't even bear to watch anymore. If it looks like we're going to have some heavy rain, he gets so excited and hyper. It gives me flashbacks to the 2004 hurricane season when I wanted to slap him every time I heard him say "hunker down". ;)

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9. Re: Other experts say oil 'pretty unlikely' to hit Keys - Paper

The first time this subject came up on here I thought

"Just like with a Hurricane, here we go"

meaning.....a freak out when nothing is known yet.

Edited: 05 May 2010, 22:14
MD
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10. Re: Other experts say oil 'pretty unlikely' to hit Keys - Paper

Sure hope this model is the correct one. No matter what happens, hope this thing gets controlled soon and doesn't happen again EVER.